Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
